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Tuesday, March 22, 2005

The Crapshooter
When ‘wrong’ is right


Sometimes it pays to bet the ‘don’t’ line


03/22/2005 - by Larry Edell

Sometimes, have you ever gotten the feeling that the table just isn’t going well? There seems to be lots of short rolls and seven outs, and you’ll see your pass or place bets go down the drain.

Rather than leave, why not switch to the "don’t" side (often good-naturedly called the "wrong" side) and see if you can recoup some of your losses. But now that your bankroll is somewhat depleted, which is the better play: don’t come or the don’t pass?

Let’s find out!

With the don’t come, you are betting flat bets and then adding odds, which will win you less than your bet (the odds are less than even money). Of course you can make flat bets on the don’t come to preserve your bankroll. The advantage of the don’t come bet is that your risk is spread over several bets, while with the don’t pass, if you lose one number (the point) then you lose it all.

The advantage, however, of the don’t pass is that once you are past the come out roll and the point is established, the odds are heavily in your favor. Then you can add odds if you want and if the point is a favorable one, like the four or ten. However, those odds will still pay less than a flat bet.

For those not familiar with craps, the come and don’t come bets are placed on the shooter after his initial "come out" roll, on which you can only bet pass or don’t pass.

On both the don’t come and the don’t pass bets, your odds payoff is the exact opposite from the pass or come line, and on the don’t side you always have to bet more to win less. For example, with a $10 flat bet on either the don’t come or don’t pass, you will receive the following odds payoffs playing at a two-times odds table (you can bet double the amount of your pass or come bets):

4 or 10: bet $40 to win $20

5 or 9: bet $30 to win $20

6 or 8: bet $30 to win $25

Many crapshooters believe that adding odds on the don’t side not only dilutes your advantage, but uses up your bankroll at a faster rate. So let’s look at flat betting with a combined don’t pass and don’t come bet.

If you place a $10 don’t pass bet and want to place a $10 don’t come bet, you have to go through another come out with your don’t come bet. If the seven hits while your $10 is in the don’t come, you lose your don’t come and win your don’t pass.

However, if you take temporary odds (use the above chart) on the don’t pass and them make a don’t come bet, the seven (or the point) can’t hurt you.

So this is what we will do if the table turns cold:

Bet $10 on the don’t pass

When point is established, take odds based on the above chart

Make a don’t come bet

When a don’t come point is established, remove the don’t pass odds

Make a second don’t come bet

Make no other bets

Wait for a decision on all three bets.

By combining the don’t pass bet with the don’t come bet, you will get the maximum advantage with the minimum work.

So, if you wondered what was the best way of betting on the don’t or "wrong" side, now you know!


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