Wednesday, March 17, 2004
Sports: Tourney prediction: Unpredictable
No one team, not even the four top seeds, is seen as a huge favorite to win the NCAA Tournament.
By BRIAN LANDMAN, Times Staff Writer
Published March 17, 2004
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GREENSBORO, N.C. - Just a couple of weeks ago, the Maryland Terrapins looked like a team that needed a little luck to slip into the NCAA Tournament field.
But in three days at the ACC tournament, they nipped Wake Forest in the final seconds, erased a 19-point halftime deficit to upset North Carolina State, then overcame a 12-point Duke lead in the final minutes and won in overtime.
"We worked really hard all year," coach Gary Williams said. "We lost some games, but we never quit. ... We were getting better as time went on."
And how.
The Terps earned a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
No one could have foreseen such a dramatic change in fortune in one weekend, but unpredictability could be the theme for this edition of March Madness.
"There hasn't been one team that has been dominant in college basketball this year," Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski said. "There's been a lot of really good ones, and that means it's going to be a very wide-open tournament."
No offense, but the No. 1 seeds all seem to have flaws.
Kentucky, the overall No. 1, is staunch defensively and has won nine straight. But it lacks an NBA-lottery star who can take over a game. Think Carmelo Anthony.
Duke's loss to the Terps showed how mortal it is when sophomore forward Shelden Williams is in foul trouble; he's the lone inside force for the Blue Devils.
Stanford is the Associated Press' top-ranked team and avenged its lone loss to Washington in the Pac-10 tournament finale. But the Cardinal hardly played the most daunting schedule and needed last-second shots to avoid losses to Arizona and Washington State.
And then there's the fourth No. 1, Saint Joseph's. No one questions the talent in the Hawks' backcourt with Jameer Nelson and Delonte West, but they have little inside and that was painfully obvious during their 20-point loss to Xavier in the Atlantic 10 tournament last week.
The men's basketball selection committee heavily debated whether SEC regular-season champion Mississippi State, Big 12 regular-season and tournament champ Oklahoma State, Big East tournament champ Connecticut and the Cinderella-no-more gang from Gonzaga merited No. 1 seeds.
"You have teams like Saint Joseph's and Gonzaga who have been tremendous all season long, but you have to question their competition throughout the year," ESPN analyst Brad Daugherty said. "I don't think there's a clear-cut choice. It's almost impossible to pick a Final Four."
Fellow ESPN analyst Dick Vitale has long believed the Goliath to everyone else's David would be UConn, led by star center Emeka Okafor and sharpshooting guard Ben Gordon.
But Okafor has been bothered by a back injury and didn't play in the first two conference tournament games. No one can be sure he'll be able to play and be effective in back-to-back games.
"Without Okafor, it puts them in the mix with a lot of people," Vitale said. "I think you could have somebody come out of nowhere and win it like Syracuse (did last year). And it's exciting to know you can't sit there and say, "This club here is a sure shot.' They're all beatable teams and that's phenomenal."
CBS analyst Billy Packer said this year's parity is more and more becoming the norm. To him, the last truly dominant team was Kentucky in 1996. Coach Rick Pitino had a deep roster of future NBA players, including Antoine Walker and Ron Mercer.
"There are no longer great junior and senior players in volume," Packer said, referring to the ever increasing number of underclassmen and high school players bolting early for the riches of the NBA. "The only way you have dominance is when you have great players in the junior and senior class."
Last year, that opened the door for Syracuse, which was a No. 3 seed with a precocious freshman star.
"Is there a great team?" Saint Joseph's coach Phil Martelli asked rhetorically. "I'm sure somebody is going to play great over the next three weeks and therefore advance to San Antonio and eventually cut down the nets."
But he can see flaws in just about every team. Flaws that could be exploited by the right team, the now team. So which team might fit that description and be this year's Syracuse?
Illinois is a No. 5 seed and had won 12 straight before losing to Wisconsin, a No. 6 seed, in the Big Ten tournament finale. Washington is a No. 8 and has won 14 of its last 17, including the win against Stanford. Xavier, a No. 7 seed, has won 13 of 14, most notably manhandling Saint Joseph's last week. Then there's this offering by men's selection committee chairman Bob Bowlsby:
"I'm not sure there's anybody playing better basketball than Maryland right now in the entire country."
No one team, not even the four top seeds, is seen as a huge favorite to win the NCAA Tournament.
By BRIAN LANDMAN, Times Staff Writer
Published March 17, 2004
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GREENSBORO, N.C. - Just a couple of weeks ago, the Maryland Terrapins looked like a team that needed a little luck to slip into the NCAA Tournament field.
But in three days at the ACC tournament, they nipped Wake Forest in the final seconds, erased a 19-point halftime deficit to upset North Carolina State, then overcame a 12-point Duke lead in the final minutes and won in overtime.
"We worked really hard all year," coach Gary Williams said. "We lost some games, but we never quit. ... We were getting better as time went on."
And how.
The Terps earned a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
No one could have foreseen such a dramatic change in fortune in one weekend, but unpredictability could be the theme for this edition of March Madness.
"There hasn't been one team that has been dominant in college basketball this year," Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski said. "There's been a lot of really good ones, and that means it's going to be a very wide-open tournament."
No offense, but the No. 1 seeds all seem to have flaws.
Kentucky, the overall No. 1, is staunch defensively and has won nine straight. But it lacks an NBA-lottery star who can take over a game. Think Carmelo Anthony.
Duke's loss to the Terps showed how mortal it is when sophomore forward Shelden Williams is in foul trouble; he's the lone inside force for the Blue Devils.
Stanford is the Associated Press' top-ranked team and avenged its lone loss to Washington in the Pac-10 tournament finale. But the Cardinal hardly played the most daunting schedule and needed last-second shots to avoid losses to Arizona and Washington State.
And then there's the fourth No. 1, Saint Joseph's. No one questions the talent in the Hawks' backcourt with Jameer Nelson and Delonte West, but they have little inside and that was painfully obvious during their 20-point loss to Xavier in the Atlantic 10 tournament last week.
The men's basketball selection committee heavily debated whether SEC regular-season champion Mississippi State, Big 12 regular-season and tournament champ Oklahoma State, Big East tournament champ Connecticut and the Cinderella-no-more gang from Gonzaga merited No. 1 seeds.
"You have teams like Saint Joseph's and Gonzaga who have been tremendous all season long, but you have to question their competition throughout the year," ESPN analyst Brad Daugherty said. "I don't think there's a clear-cut choice. It's almost impossible to pick a Final Four."
Fellow ESPN analyst Dick Vitale has long believed the Goliath to everyone else's David would be UConn, led by star center Emeka Okafor and sharpshooting guard Ben Gordon.
But Okafor has been bothered by a back injury and didn't play in the first two conference tournament games. No one can be sure he'll be able to play and be effective in back-to-back games.
"Without Okafor, it puts them in the mix with a lot of people," Vitale said. "I think you could have somebody come out of nowhere and win it like Syracuse (did last year). And it's exciting to know you can't sit there and say, "This club here is a sure shot.' They're all beatable teams and that's phenomenal."
CBS analyst Billy Packer said this year's parity is more and more becoming the norm. To him, the last truly dominant team was Kentucky in 1996. Coach Rick Pitino had a deep roster of future NBA players, including Antoine Walker and Ron Mercer.
"There are no longer great junior and senior players in volume," Packer said, referring to the ever increasing number of underclassmen and high school players bolting early for the riches of the NBA. "The only way you have dominance is when you have great players in the junior and senior class."
Last year, that opened the door for Syracuse, which was a No. 3 seed with a precocious freshman star.
"Is there a great team?" Saint Joseph's coach Phil Martelli asked rhetorically. "I'm sure somebody is going to play great over the next three weeks and therefore advance to San Antonio and eventually cut down the nets."
But he can see flaws in just about every team. Flaws that could be exploited by the right team, the now team. So which team might fit that description and be this year's Syracuse?
Illinois is a No. 5 seed and had won 12 straight before losing to Wisconsin, a No. 6 seed, in the Big Ten tournament finale. Washington is a No. 8 and has won 14 of its last 17, including the win against Stanford. Xavier, a No. 7 seed, has won 13 of 14, most notably manhandling Saint Joseph's last week. Then there's this offering by men's selection committee chairman Bob Bowlsby:
"I'm not sure there's anybody playing better basketball than Maryland right now in the entire country."
