Sunday, January 16, 2005
Public sides with Colts -- and it might be right
Handicapper Sterling says underdog Indy ready to unseat New England
By MATT YOUMANS
REVIEW-JOURNAL
A record-setting season by quarterback Peyton Manning has turned the Indianapolis Colts into a team of destiny in the eyes of many. But to get there, they must go through the NFL's current dynasty franchise.
The New England Patriots opened as 2 1/2-point home favorites over Indianapolis in today's AFC divisional playoff game. One-sided action has moved the line to 1.
If the betting public is correct, the Colts could be the next big thing.
Paramount Sports handicapper Lee Sterling said the money is flowing in the right direction and he predicts a change at the top in the AFC.
"Indianapolis might just dominate the NFL for the next two to three years like people are predicting the Patriots will do," Sterling said. "Every team needs a breakthrough game and I feel this is it for the Colts. It's their time."
A strong case can be made for New England, which has won two of the past three Super Bowls. The Patriots own an 18-game home winning streak and five consecutive wins over the Colts.
New England quarterback Tom Brady is 6-0 straight up in the playoffs, and coach Bill Belichick has repeatedly designed defensive schemes to make Manning look mortal.
Despite all that, most bettors see more to like in Manning and Indianapolis' high-powered offense.
"It's interesting to follow how the public is looking at this game. As soon as the line came out everybody flooded to Indy," Sterling said. "Now in the last two days, people are starting to come back to New England because of its head coaching advantage and Brady's reputation for coming up with the big play in the big game.
"But the Colts have possibly the best offense ever in the NFL. The bottom line is Belichick is a genius in game preparation and the small line might temp people to bet New England, but Indy is the play."
In the regular-season opener Sept. 9, the Patriots beat the Colts 27-24 as Brady passed for 335 yards and three touchdowns to outduel Manning.
But Indianapolis' effort in that game encourages Sterling (paramountsports.com). The Colts rushed for 202 yards -- getting 142 on 30 carries from Edgerrin James -- and Manning passed for 256. The difference was the New England defense forcing two turnovers in the red zone.
But that defense is missing its top two cornerbacks, Ty Law and Tyrone Poole, and Sterling expects Manning to spread the field and open running lanes for James.
"Manning has seen every defense in the book thrown at him this season and you can bet he's going to be prepared for every gimmick and pre-snap look," Sterling said. "Even if he's fooled once or twice, he'll figure everything out by early in the second quarter, and eventually the Patriots will get picked apart."
Sterling said the Colts' defense, fueled by pass-rushing end Dwight Freeney, is underrated. Running back Corey Dillon could be an important weapon for New England by keeping Manning off the field.
"The Patriots must run the ball and kill the clock for them to have a serious chance of winning," Sterling said.
Betting safeguards sought
By Dave Joseph
Staff Writer
Posted January 16 2005
MARATHON ยท Saying that a race-fixing and wagering scheme that led to 17 federal indictments last week was "as complex and troubling as a Sopranos episode," racing official Greg Avioli asked legislators and regulators Saturday to better protect wagering pools.
Speaking at a "thoroughbred summit" hosted by the National Council of Legislators from Gaming States, Avioli, deputy commissioner and CEO of the National Thoroughbred Racing Association, said racing commissions, legislators and horsemen's groups must demand to know who is operating offshore betting outlets and who is betting into commingled pari-mutuel pools.
Avioli's comments came a day after federal indictments were handed down in a race-fixing scandal in New York, where wagers allegedly were placed through several offshore betting outlets and a Native American betting service in Oklahoma.
The 17 indictments included three reputed Gambino crime-family associates.
"We don't know, I can't tell you today whether there was or was not any gambling into our pari-mutuel pools from the Gambino family," Avioli said.
"We need to have the ability on a daily basis to look into our pools and find out who is betting into them and how much, to check every day to see if there's something that looks unusual."
Although Avioli told legislators there are up to 9,000 simulcast outlets around the world, legislators and regulators "have the ability, actually have the mandate under the federal Interstate Horseracing Act, to approve everywhere" that tracks send their signals.
"Each of those 9,000 separate contracts that a racetrack in your jurisdiction deals with ... the regulators have the authority to look at that contract and assure the person doing business with the racetrack is aboveboard and giving any information you need," Avioli said.
"Unfortunately, on both racetracks and horsemen's associations and racing commissions, you just don't do a good enough job of that right now."
Avioli told legislators that thoroughbred racing "lives and dies on pari-mutuel revenue," and fans need to know there is integrity in the sport.
