Saturday, January 15, 2005
Lem's Playoff Picks:
National Football League:
St. Louis over Atlanta
Minnesota over Philadelphia
Indianapolis over New England
Jets, underdogs primed to have their day
Handicapper Daly goes against favorites in divisional playoffs
By MATT YOUMANS
REVIEW-JOURNAL
Veteran running back Jerome Bettis emerged from a backup role to become a weekly 100-yard threat for the Steelers. He rose to fifth place on the NFL's career rushing list during the season.
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
The Pittsburgh Steelers are 13-0 straight up and 9-4 against the spread since rookie QB Ben Roethlisberger became the starter.
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
An odd couple has helped lead the Pittsburgh Steelers to the NFL's best record. Jerome Bettis was an old, overweight, short-yardage running back, and Ben Roethlisberger was just another rookie quarterback.
Four months ago, "The Bus" and "Big Ben" were backups. Now they're driving the Super Bowl hopes of the Steelers.
Pittsburgh is a 9-point home favorite over the New York Jets in an AFC divisional playoff game today that Players Choice editor Buzz Daly said will be closer than expected.
"I don't know which is more intimidating, Pittsburgh's 15-1 record or coach Bill Cowher's chin. But I do know the nine points is too much for the Steelers to cover," Daly said. "I'm convinced it will be a competitive game."
The statistics back up the Steelers' status as big favorites. They are No. 1 in the league in total defense and rushing defense, while Bettis and Duce Staley combine to give them the league's No. 2 rushing offense.
Roethlisberger is 13-0 straight up and 9-4 against the spread as an NFL starter.
But Daly said the Jets match up well with Pittsburgh, which needed a late TD by Bettis to secure a 17-6 win in the first meeting Dec. 12.
The Jets outgained the Steelers 296-262 and intercepted Roethlisberger twice in that game.
New York's Curtis Martin led the league in rushing with 1,697 yards, and quarterback Chad Pennington has rediscovered big-play wideout Santana Moss. The Jets are also plus-18 in turnover differential.
"Martin will not be leg-weary in the fourth quarter because backup Lamont Jordan has been an effective change of pace, and Pittsburgh's pass defense has holes, which can be exploited," Daly said. "The Jets are not inclined to self-destruct."
Daly (buzzdaly.com) analyzes his underdog picks in the other three divisional round games:
• ST. LOUIS AT ATLANTA (-7): Are the Rams as bad as they looked most of the season? Is Mike Martz as bad a coach and tactician as many NFL observers insist? Can Michael Vick lead the Falcons to the promised land in February? No, no and no.
The revitalized Rams, winners of three straight to get to 9-8, bear a passing resemblance to the fondly remembered Greatest Show on Turf. Marc Bulger can light it up with any QB in the league. Veteran receivers Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce are deep threats on any play. Don't underestimate the ground game, as Marshall Faulk still has something in his tank and Steven Jackson is an emerging star. Martz proved last week against Seattle that he still has solid offensive play-calling credentials.
Atlanta relies on Vick to be a one-man wrecking crew. He is capable of amazing feats, but is hampered by a one-dimensional scheme, which has not taken full advantage of running back T.J. Duckett. It's also not a good sign when the leading receiver is the tight end. St. Louis could win straight up.
• MINNESOTA AT PHILADELPHIA (-9): After three years of bitter defeats in the NFC Championship Game, the Eagles will put their fans out of their misery earlier this year. Quarterback Donovan McNabb doesn't have enough weapons to compensate for the loss of wideout Terrell Owens, the fatal blow to the Eagles' chances.
Owens was the catalyst that would have brought coach Andy Reid and his underachievers a measure of respectability by upgrading a pedestrian offense en route to the Super Bowl. It has been more than a month since Philadelphia played an impressive game. The Eagles are well-rested, but too well-rested.
The quarterback who figures to take over this game is Daunte Culpepper, who quietly passed for 39 touchdowns during the regular season. He will outgain McNabb on the ground and in the air as the maligned Vikings play with enthusiasm. A slightly gimpy Randy Moss is still enough to occupy the Eagles' defensive backs, opening up the field for Minnesota's other receivers. The Vikings will come in under the spread.
• INDIANAPOLIS AT NEW ENGLAND (-2): The king is dead. Long live the king. That pretty much sums up my take on this matchup. Patriots coach Bill Belichick and his blue-collar workers have won two of the past three Super Bowls and are as close to a dynasty as the parity-obsessed NFL will allow.
But quarterback Tom Brady lost his aura of invincibility with a comedy of errors in a memorable Monday night loss at Miami. Add to that a badly banged-up secondary, which will face Peyton Manning, who has not shown the slightest inclination to have a bad day. Last year, the New England defensive backs manhandled the Colts' receivers to such a degree that the league instituted rules limiting that type of contact. If the hand-checking rules are enforced, advantage Indianapolis.
Manning has donned his Superman suit, and with a terrific supporting cast, he is ready for revenge against Belichick. While two points would normally be a bargain price with the Patriots, I believe an outcome in favor of the Colts is inevitable.
