Tuesday, March 16, 2004
reviewjournal.com -- Sports: 'Solid numbers' hold firm in early action
The madness was missing Sunday night when NCAA Tournament betting lines were posted at the Stardust sports book. A small crowd surveyed the numbers and most bettors, it seemed, were taking a wait-and-see approach.
After an hour of wagering, only a few of the 32 lines changed significantly.
"Everybody scrambled to get in line and it was over in about 10 minutes," Stardust sports book director Bob Scucci said. "None of the numbers really ran. I think we put up some solid numbers.
"Usually (the bettors) want to get in and pound on one game. There's usually at least one soft spot."
The biggest early move came on Pittsburgh, which opened as a 12 1/2-point favorite over Central Florida before the line was adjusted to 14 1/2.
Support also came in on Mississippi State, which opened as a 17 1/2-point favorite over Monmouth and moved to 19.
Scucci said one game that intrigues him is Michigan State-UNR. The Spartans, a No. 7 seed, opened as 2 1/2-point favorites over the 10th-seeded Wolf Pack, which is 23-8 behind the play of star Kirk Snyder.
Scucci said Michigan State should probably be a smaller favorite, but he made the line predicting how the public will bet.
"I know we're going to get all Michigan State money," he said. "A lot of people don't really know how good Nevada is this year."
The biggest disparity in a line showed up on No. 1 seed Saint Joseph's. Las Vegas Sports Consultants and some offshore books opened the Hawks as 27-point favorites over Liberty. The Stardust posted the line at 23 and it stayed there.
Air Force, the Mountain West Conference regular-season champ, opened as a 7 1/2-point underdog to North Carolina and the line moved to 8.
Scucci said he expects betting action to pick up today after totals are posted, and most of the money will come in when college basketball fans flock to Las Vegas later this week.
On the futures board, the Stardust posted Kentucky as the 3-1 favorite to win the championship. Oklahoma State, a No. 2 seed after winning the Big 12 regular season and tournament titles, is the second choice at 7-2. Connecticut and Duke are both at 4-1.
"If I had to say two teams are playing better than anybody right now, it's Kentucky and Oklahoma State," Scucci said. "As the conference tournaments showed, anybody can win it this year."
The madness was missing Sunday night when NCAA Tournament betting lines were posted at the Stardust sports book. A small crowd surveyed the numbers and most bettors, it seemed, were taking a wait-and-see approach.
After an hour of wagering, only a few of the 32 lines changed significantly.
"Everybody scrambled to get in line and it was over in about 10 minutes," Stardust sports book director Bob Scucci said. "None of the numbers really ran. I think we put up some solid numbers.
"Usually (the bettors) want to get in and pound on one game. There's usually at least one soft spot."
The biggest early move came on Pittsburgh, which opened as a 12 1/2-point favorite over Central Florida before the line was adjusted to 14 1/2.
Support also came in on Mississippi State, which opened as a 17 1/2-point favorite over Monmouth and moved to 19.
Scucci said one game that intrigues him is Michigan State-UNR. The Spartans, a No. 7 seed, opened as 2 1/2-point favorites over the 10th-seeded Wolf Pack, which is 23-8 behind the play of star Kirk Snyder.
Scucci said Michigan State should probably be a smaller favorite, but he made the line predicting how the public will bet.
"I know we're going to get all Michigan State money," he said. "A lot of people don't really know how good Nevada is this year."
The biggest disparity in a line showed up on No. 1 seed Saint Joseph's. Las Vegas Sports Consultants and some offshore books opened the Hawks as 27-point favorites over Liberty. The Stardust posted the line at 23 and it stayed there.
Air Force, the Mountain West Conference regular-season champ, opened as a 7 1/2-point underdog to North Carolina and the line moved to 8.
Scucci said he expects betting action to pick up today after totals are posted, and most of the money will come in when college basketball fans flock to Las Vegas later this week.
On the futures board, the Stardust posted Kentucky as the 3-1 favorite to win the championship. Oklahoma State, a No. 2 seed after winning the Big 12 regular season and tournament titles, is the second choice at 7-2. Connecticut and Duke are both at 4-1.
"If I had to say two teams are playing better than anybody right now, it's Kentucky and Oklahoma State," Scucci said. "As the conference tournaments showed, anybody can win it this year."
March Madness Basketball Lines: "COLLEGE BASKETBALL Tuesday, March 16th
NCAA TOURNAMENT Dayton, OH(Team#64 vs Team#65)
Time # Teams Spread Total Money
03/16
07:00p 667 FLORIDA A&M +4 o133½ +160
668 LEHIGH -4 u133½ -180
NIT TOURNAMENT
Time # Teams Spread Total Money
03/16
08:00p 669 NEBRASKA +1½
670 CREIGHTON -1½
03/16
07:00p 671 IOWA +2½
672 SAINT LOUIS -2½
03/16
09:00p 673 MISSOURI +3
674 MICHIGAN -3
COLLEGE BASKETBALL Wednesday, March 17th
NIT TOURNAMENT Opening Round
Time # Teams Spread Total Money
03/17
07:00p 717 TENNESSEE +2
718 GEORGE MASON -2
03/17
07:00p 719 WEST VIRGINIA +7
720 KENT STATE -7
03/17
07:00p 721 TROY STATE +2
722 NIAGARA -2
03/17
08:00p 723 BELMONT +5
724 AUSTIN PEAY -5
03/17
07:30p 725 BOSTON U +6½
726 RHODE ISLAND -6½
03/17
08:00p 727 RICE +4
728 WISC MILWAUKEE -4
03/17
09:30p 729 UNLV +5½
730 BOISE STATE -5½
NIT TOURNAMENT First Round
Time # Teams Spread Total Money
03/17
07:00p 731 GEO WASHINGTON +4½
732 VIRGINIA -4½
03/17
07:00p 733 PURDUE +5½
734 NOTRE DAME -5½
03/17
07:30p 735 TEMPLE +4
736 RUTGERS -4
03/17
07:30p 737 DREXEL +8½
738 VILLANOVA -8½
03/17
08:00p 739 FLORIDA STATE -1
740 WICHITA STATE +1
03/17
09:00p 741 HAWAII +7½
742 UTAH STATE -7½
03/17
09:30p 743 GEORGIA +3½
744 IOWA STATE -3½
03/17
09:30p 745 LSU +7
746 OKLAHOMA -7
03/17
11:59p 747 COLORADO +4½
748 OREGON -4½
COLLEGE BASKETBALL Thursday, March 18th
NCAA TOURNAMENT Buffalo, NY(First Round)
Time # Teams Spread Total Money
03/18
12:25p 507 NC CHARLOTTE +1½ o145 +105
508 TEXAS TECH -1½ u145 -125
03/18
02:55p 509 LIBERTY +23½ o136½ +2500
510 ST. JOSEPH'S -23½ u136½ -5000
03/18
09:40p 511 DAYTON +2½ o132 +135
512 DEPAUL -2½ u132 -155
03/18
07:10p 513 VERMONT +20 o133½ +2000
514 CONNECTICUT -20 u133½ -4000
NCAA TOURNAMENT Raleigh, NC(First Round)
Time # Teams Spread Total Money
03/18
09:40p 515 ARIZONA -3 o153½ -155
516 SETON HALL +3 u153½ +135
03/18
07:10p 517 ALABAMA STATE +34 o133½ +4000
518 DUKE -34 u133½ -8000
03/18
12:20p 519 MANHATTAN +5½ o144 +210
520 FLORIDA -5½ u144 -270
03/18
02:50p 521 VA COMMONWEALTH +13 o149 +800
522 WAKE FOREST -13 u149 -1400
NCAA TOURNAMENT Denver, CO(First Round)
Time # Teams Spread Total Money
03/18
09:50p 523 AIR FORCE +7½ o131 +260
524 NORTH CAROLINA -7½ u131 -340
03/18
07:20p 525 PRINCETON +11½ o119 +700
526 TEXAS -11½ u119 -1200
03/18
03:10p 527 BYU +2 o135 +110
528 SYRACUSE -2 u135 -130
03/18
12:40p 529 UTEP +6½ o148½ +210
530 MARYLAND -6½ u148½ -270
NCAA TOURNAMENT Seattle, WA(First Round)
Time # Teams Spread Total Money
03/18
02:40p 531 SO ILLINOIS +2 o134 +120
532 ALABAMA -2 u134 -140
03/18
05:10p 533 TEX SAN ANTONIO +25 o137
534 STANFORD -25 u137
03/18
07:35p 535 NEVADA +2 o139 +115
536 MICHIGAN STATE -2 u139 -135
03/18
10:05p 537 VALPARAISO +18 o146½
538 GONZAGA -18 u146½
COLLEGE BASKETBALL Friday, March 19th
NCAA TOURNAMENT Columbus,OH(Opening Rnd)
Time # Teams Spread Total Money
03/19
09:40p 823 UAB +1½ o157 +105
824 WASHINGTON U -1½ u157 -125
03/19
02:55p 829 E TENNESSEE ST +9 o146 +350
830 CINCINNATI -9 u146 -500
NCAA TOURNAMENT Orlando, FL(Opening Rnd)
Time # Teams Spread Total Money
03/19
09:40p 831 LOUISVILLE -1½ o130 -125
832 XAVIER +1½ u130 +105
03/19
07:10p 833 MONMOUTH +19½ o136½
834 MISSISSIPPI ST -19½ u136½
03/19
02:45p 835 WESTERN MICHIGAN -1 o141½ -120
836 VANDERBILT +1 u141½ EV
03/19
12:15p 837 UL LAFAYETTE +7½ o145 +280
838 NC STATE -7½ u145 -360
NCAA TOURNAMENT Milwaukee, WI(Opening Rnd)
Time # Teams Spread Total Money
03/19
12:30p 839 UTAH U +1½ o121½ +105
840 BOSTON COLLEGE -1½ u121½ -125
03/19
03:00p 841 NORTHERN IOWA +12 o140½ +600
842 GEORGIA TECH -12 u140½ -1000
03/19
07:20p 843 RICHMOND +8½ o116½ +325
844 WISCONSIN -8½ u116½ -450
03/19
09:50p 845 CENTRAL FLORIDA +13½ o125½ +900
846 PITTSBURGH -13½ u125½ -1700
NCAA TOURNAMENT Kansas City, MO(Opening Rnd)
Time # Teams Spread Total Money
03/19
12:30p 847 SOUTH CAROLINA +2 o132½ +110
848 MEMPHIS U -2 u132½ -130
03/19
03:00p 849 E. WASHINGTON +15½ o136½
850 OKLAHOMA STATE -15½ u136½
03/19
07:25p 851 PACIFIC +7½ o129 +280
852 PROVIDENCE -7½ u129 -360
03/19
09:55p 853 ILLINOIS CHICAGO +8½ o138 +300
854 KANSAS -8½ u138 -400
NCAA TOURNAMENT Dayton, OH(Team#64 vs Team#65)
Time # Teams Spread Total Money
03/16
07:00p 667 FLORIDA A&M +4 o133½ +160
668 LEHIGH -4 u133½ -180
NIT TOURNAMENT
Time # Teams Spread Total Money
03/16
08:00p 669 NEBRASKA +1½
670 CREIGHTON -1½
03/16
07:00p 671 IOWA +2½
672 SAINT LOUIS -2½
03/16
09:00p 673 MISSOURI +3
674 MICHIGAN -3
COLLEGE BASKETBALL Wednesday, March 17th
NIT TOURNAMENT Opening Round
Time # Teams Spread Total Money
03/17
07:00p 717 TENNESSEE +2
718 GEORGE MASON -2
03/17
07:00p 719 WEST VIRGINIA +7
720 KENT STATE -7
03/17
07:00p 721 TROY STATE +2
722 NIAGARA -2
03/17
08:00p 723 BELMONT +5
724 AUSTIN PEAY -5
03/17
07:30p 725 BOSTON U +6½
726 RHODE ISLAND -6½
03/17
08:00p 727 RICE +4
728 WISC MILWAUKEE -4
03/17
09:30p 729 UNLV +5½
730 BOISE STATE -5½
NIT TOURNAMENT First Round
Time # Teams Spread Total Money
03/17
07:00p 731 GEO WASHINGTON +4½
732 VIRGINIA -4½
03/17
07:00p 733 PURDUE +5½
734 NOTRE DAME -5½
03/17
07:30p 735 TEMPLE +4
736 RUTGERS -4
03/17
07:30p 737 DREXEL +8½
738 VILLANOVA -8½
03/17
08:00p 739 FLORIDA STATE -1
740 WICHITA STATE +1
03/17
09:00p 741 HAWAII +7½
742 UTAH STATE -7½
03/17
09:30p 743 GEORGIA +3½
744 IOWA STATE -3½
03/17
09:30p 745 LSU +7
746 OKLAHOMA -7
03/17
11:59p 747 COLORADO +4½
748 OREGON -4½
COLLEGE BASKETBALL Thursday, March 18th
NCAA TOURNAMENT Buffalo, NY(First Round)
Time # Teams Spread Total Money
03/18
12:25p 507 NC CHARLOTTE +1½ o145 +105
508 TEXAS TECH -1½ u145 -125
03/18
02:55p 509 LIBERTY +23½ o136½ +2500
510 ST. JOSEPH'S -23½ u136½ -5000
03/18
09:40p 511 DAYTON +2½ o132 +135
512 DEPAUL -2½ u132 -155
03/18
07:10p 513 VERMONT +20 o133½ +2000
514 CONNECTICUT -20 u133½ -4000
NCAA TOURNAMENT Raleigh, NC(First Round)
Time # Teams Spread Total Money
03/18
09:40p 515 ARIZONA -3 o153½ -155
516 SETON HALL +3 u153½ +135
03/18
07:10p 517 ALABAMA STATE +34 o133½ +4000
518 DUKE -34 u133½ -8000
03/18
12:20p 519 MANHATTAN +5½ o144 +210
520 FLORIDA -5½ u144 -270
03/18
02:50p 521 VA COMMONWEALTH +13 o149 +800
522 WAKE FOREST -13 u149 -1400
NCAA TOURNAMENT Denver, CO(First Round)
Time # Teams Spread Total Money
03/18
09:50p 523 AIR FORCE +7½ o131 +260
524 NORTH CAROLINA -7½ u131 -340
03/18
07:20p 525 PRINCETON +11½ o119 +700
526 TEXAS -11½ u119 -1200
03/18
03:10p 527 BYU +2 o135 +110
528 SYRACUSE -2 u135 -130
03/18
12:40p 529 UTEP +6½ o148½ +210
530 MARYLAND -6½ u148½ -270
NCAA TOURNAMENT Seattle, WA(First Round)
Time # Teams Spread Total Money
03/18
02:40p 531 SO ILLINOIS +2 o134 +120
532 ALABAMA -2 u134 -140
03/18
05:10p 533 TEX SAN ANTONIO +25 o137
534 STANFORD -25 u137
03/18
07:35p 535 NEVADA +2 o139 +115
536 MICHIGAN STATE -2 u139 -135
03/18
10:05p 537 VALPARAISO +18 o146½
538 GONZAGA -18 u146½
COLLEGE BASKETBALL Friday, March 19th
NCAA TOURNAMENT Columbus,OH(Opening Rnd)
Time # Teams Spread Total Money
03/19
09:40p 823 UAB +1½ o157 +105
824 WASHINGTON U -1½ u157 -125
03/19
02:55p 829 E TENNESSEE ST +9 o146 +350
830 CINCINNATI -9 u146 -500
NCAA TOURNAMENT Orlando, FL(Opening Rnd)
Time # Teams Spread Total Money
03/19
09:40p 831 LOUISVILLE -1½ o130 -125
832 XAVIER +1½ u130 +105
03/19
07:10p 833 MONMOUTH +19½ o136½
834 MISSISSIPPI ST -19½ u136½
03/19
02:45p 835 WESTERN MICHIGAN -1 o141½ -120
836 VANDERBILT +1 u141½ EV
03/19
12:15p 837 UL LAFAYETTE +7½ o145 +280
838 NC STATE -7½ u145 -360
NCAA TOURNAMENT Milwaukee, WI(Opening Rnd)
Time # Teams Spread Total Money
03/19
12:30p 839 UTAH U +1½ o121½ +105
840 BOSTON COLLEGE -1½ u121½ -125
03/19
03:00p 841 NORTHERN IOWA +12 o140½ +600
842 GEORGIA TECH -12 u140½ -1000
03/19
07:20p 843 RICHMOND +8½ o116½ +325
844 WISCONSIN -8½ u116½ -450
03/19
09:50p 845 CENTRAL FLORIDA +13½ o125½ +900
846 PITTSBURGH -13½ u125½ -1700
NCAA TOURNAMENT Kansas City, MO(Opening Rnd)
Time # Teams Spread Total Money
03/19
12:30p 847 SOUTH CAROLINA +2 o132½ +110
848 MEMPHIS U -2 u132½ -130
03/19
03:00p 849 E. WASHINGTON +15½ o136½
850 OKLAHOMA STATE -15½ u136½
03/19
07:25p 851 PACIFIC +7½ o129 +280
852 PROVIDENCE -7½ u129 -360
03/19
09:55p 853 ILLINOIS CHICAGO +8½ o138 +300
854 KANSAS -8½ u138 -400
STAR-TELEGRAM.COM
Posted on Tue, Mar. 16, 2004
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS/JULIE JACOBSON
Connecticut's tournament picture will look considerably brighter if leading scorer Emeka Okafor, right, is 100 percent, while Jaron Brown contributes to Pitt's tough defense.
THE INDIANAPOLIS STAR/SAM RICHE VIA KRT
A 19.7 points-per-game average for Devin Harris, right, helps make Wisconsin a No. 6 seed worth considering.
STAR-TELEGRAM/KHAMPHA BOUAPHANH
Guard Tony Allen, right, is a threat on both ends of the floor for Final Four pick Oklahoma State.
THE CHARLOTTE OBSERVER/PATRICK SCHNEIDER VIA KRT
Maryland deserves a look thanks to a competitive conference and ACC tournament MVP John Gilchrist, left.
AP/KEITH SRAKOCIC
Jameer Nelson of Saint Joseph's
AP/BOB JORDAN
Daniel Ewing of Duke
Wendell "The Professor" Barnhouse's cheat sheet for Bracketology 101.
Bracketology for dummies
A crash course on cashing in on the Madness
By Wendell Barnhouse
Star-Telegram Staff Writer
Up in the Pacific Northwest, Rick Neuheisel is studying a bracket and asking himself, "Should I or shouldn't I?"
Somewhere, Pete Rose is wondering if his Hall of Fame chances will be further diminished if he gambles on Cincinnati (the Bearcats, not the Reds) to win it all.
Heck, the thought here is that even President Bush and Democratic challenger John Kerry are taking a 30-second timeout from approving attack ads to ponder whether Saint Joseph's or Oklahoma State deserved a No. 1 seed.
It's March, it's Madness, the 65 teams have been selected and seeded into the brackets. All that means just one thing: time to get wet.
For the next three weeks, office pools will be the topic of discussion around coffee makers and water fountains. Everybody from priests to policemen to parolees participates. Billions of dollars changes hands over the next three weeks as the NCAA Tournament marches from 65 to one.
Before you start filling out your winning bracket and handing over your hard-earned legal tender, here are some tips:
Teams to embrace
Connecticut, Oklahoma State, Pittsburgh, Wisconsin. The Huskies, if Emeka Okafor is healthy, have the nation's best talent. The Cowboys may have the nation's quickest starting five. The Panthers are tough-minded rebounders and defenders. The Badgers have a marvelous player in junior guard Devin Harris.
Conference call
The Atlantic Coast and Big East conferences were balanced and competitive. Typically, middle-of-the-road teams from tough leagues find success in the relative "fresh air" of the NCAA Tournament.
That said, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Wake Forest, Maryland, Providence and Boston College are teams worth considering for long runs.
Teams to avoid
Vanderbilt, Saint Joseph's, Texas, Illinois and Florida. The Commodores struggle outside of Nashville. Saint Joseph's, Illinois and Florida rely too much on jump shots.
The Longhorns are getting a lot of national love as a team that could knock off Duke in Atlanta. Two weeks ago, Texas appeared to have the depth and resolve needed to make a run. But unless the Horns' shooting touch returns, talk in Austin will soon turn to football.
First-round lock
Since the current tournament format was adopted in 1985, a No. 16 seed has never beaten a No. 1 seed. That's 0-76. First thing you do on your bracket is move the No. 1 seeds to the second round.
But if you believe a No. 16 seed is due, take a flyer on Liberty over Saint Joseph's. (If Patrick Henry were alive and filling out a bracket, he might say, "Give me Liberty ...")
2nd-round surprises
OK, so a No. 1 seed has never lost in the first round. But a No. 1 seed hasn't made it out of the first weekend 10 times. In this tournament, the top seeds all figure to have a difficult time in Round Two. Charlotte over Saint Joseph's and Arizona/Seton Hall over Duke are possible shockers.
Pick one, any one
Since the seeding began in 1979, all four No. 1 seeds have never reached the Final Four in a single tournament. However, 13 of the past 25 national champions have been No. 1 seeds. So riding a No. 1 horse all the way isn't a bad choice.
Sweets are good
The last time at least one double-digit seed didn't advance to the Sweet 16 was 1995. Of the double-digit seeds, take a long look at Western Michigan and East Tennessee State as teams that could advance to the second weekend.
Use common sense
If you fall in love with a double-digit seed, make it a brief affair. The last double-digit seed to reach the Final Four was No. 11 LSU in 1986. Teams with more than a single digit in front of their names disappear after the second weekend.
Don't get burned
Teams that were hot during conference tournaments don't always stay hot during the NCAAs, and vice versa.
Maryland went from a bubble team to an automatic qualifier by sweeping three games and winning the ACC tournament for the first time since 1984. Good for the Terps. But when it won the national championship in 2001, Maryland lost in the ACC semifinals.
X marks the spot
Xavier has a solid postseason history. The Musketeers became the ninth team in Division I history to win four games in four days to capture a conference tournament title.
But beware: Of the previous eight teams, only Auburn in 1985 reached the Sweet 16.
666
The devil won't make you pick a No. 6 seed, but six seeds have a better tournament history than No. 5 seeds. Of this year's No. 6 seeds, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Boston College are good enough to make some noise.
12th (good) night
In nine out of the past 10 tournaments, at least one No. 12 has beaten a No. 5 in the first round. Of the past 40 games between No. 12 and No. 5 seeds, the 12s are 15-25. Murray State over Illinois and Manhattan over Florida are the best bets to continue the trend.
Finally, a word of caution: Office pools are a form of gambling, and according to the letter of the law, it's illegal. On the official bracket released in Indianapolis on Sunday night, the following disclaimer was made (albeit in tiny type):
"The NCAA opposes all sports wagering. This bracket should not be used for sweepstakes, contests, office pools or other gambling activities."
So let's be careful out there. And good luck.
Posted on Tue, Mar. 16, 2004
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS/JULIE JACOBSON
Connecticut's tournament picture will look considerably brighter if leading scorer Emeka Okafor, right, is 100 percent, while Jaron Brown contributes to Pitt's tough defense.
THE INDIANAPOLIS STAR/SAM RICHE VIA KRT
A 19.7 points-per-game average for Devin Harris, right, helps make Wisconsin a No. 6 seed worth considering.
STAR-TELEGRAM/KHAMPHA BOUAPHANH
Guard Tony Allen, right, is a threat on both ends of the floor for Final Four pick Oklahoma State.
THE CHARLOTTE OBSERVER/PATRICK SCHNEIDER VIA KRT
Maryland deserves a look thanks to a competitive conference and ACC tournament MVP John Gilchrist, left.
AP/KEITH SRAKOCIC
Jameer Nelson of Saint Joseph's
AP/BOB JORDAN
Daniel Ewing of Duke
Wendell "The Professor" Barnhouse's cheat sheet for Bracketology 101.
Bracketology for dummies
A crash course on cashing in on the Madness
By Wendell Barnhouse
Star-Telegram Staff Writer
Up in the Pacific Northwest, Rick Neuheisel is studying a bracket and asking himself, "Should I or shouldn't I?"
Somewhere, Pete Rose is wondering if his Hall of Fame chances will be further diminished if he gambles on Cincinnati (the Bearcats, not the Reds) to win it all.
Heck, the thought here is that even President Bush and Democratic challenger John Kerry are taking a 30-second timeout from approving attack ads to ponder whether Saint Joseph's or Oklahoma State deserved a No. 1 seed.
It's March, it's Madness, the 65 teams have been selected and seeded into the brackets. All that means just one thing: time to get wet.
For the next three weeks, office pools will be the topic of discussion around coffee makers and water fountains. Everybody from priests to policemen to parolees participates. Billions of dollars changes hands over the next three weeks as the NCAA Tournament marches from 65 to one.
Before you start filling out your winning bracket and handing over your hard-earned legal tender, here are some tips:
Teams to embrace
Connecticut, Oklahoma State, Pittsburgh, Wisconsin. The Huskies, if Emeka Okafor is healthy, have the nation's best talent. The Cowboys may have the nation's quickest starting five. The Panthers are tough-minded rebounders and defenders. The Badgers have a marvelous player in junior guard Devin Harris.
Conference call
The Atlantic Coast and Big East conferences were balanced and competitive. Typically, middle-of-the-road teams from tough leagues find success in the relative "fresh air" of the NCAA Tournament.
That said, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Wake Forest, Maryland, Providence and Boston College are teams worth considering for long runs.
Teams to avoid
Vanderbilt, Saint Joseph's, Texas, Illinois and Florida. The Commodores struggle outside of Nashville. Saint Joseph's, Illinois and Florida rely too much on jump shots.
The Longhorns are getting a lot of national love as a team that could knock off Duke in Atlanta. Two weeks ago, Texas appeared to have the depth and resolve needed to make a run. But unless the Horns' shooting touch returns, talk in Austin will soon turn to football.
First-round lock
Since the current tournament format was adopted in 1985, a No. 16 seed has never beaten a No. 1 seed. That's 0-76. First thing you do on your bracket is move the No. 1 seeds to the second round.
But if you believe a No. 16 seed is due, take a flyer on Liberty over Saint Joseph's. (If Patrick Henry were alive and filling out a bracket, he might say, "Give me Liberty ...")
2nd-round surprises
OK, so a No. 1 seed has never lost in the first round. But a No. 1 seed hasn't made it out of the first weekend 10 times. In this tournament, the top seeds all figure to have a difficult time in Round Two. Charlotte over Saint Joseph's and Arizona/Seton Hall over Duke are possible shockers.
Pick one, any one
Since the seeding began in 1979, all four No. 1 seeds have never reached the Final Four in a single tournament. However, 13 of the past 25 national champions have been No. 1 seeds. So riding a No. 1 horse all the way isn't a bad choice.
Sweets are good
The last time at least one double-digit seed didn't advance to the Sweet 16 was 1995. Of the double-digit seeds, take a long look at Western Michigan and East Tennessee State as teams that could advance to the second weekend.
Use common sense
If you fall in love with a double-digit seed, make it a brief affair. The last double-digit seed to reach the Final Four was No. 11 LSU in 1986. Teams with more than a single digit in front of their names disappear after the second weekend.
Don't get burned
Teams that were hot during conference tournaments don't always stay hot during the NCAAs, and vice versa.
Maryland went from a bubble team to an automatic qualifier by sweeping three games and winning the ACC tournament for the first time since 1984. Good for the Terps. But when it won the national championship in 2001, Maryland lost in the ACC semifinals.
X marks the spot
Xavier has a solid postseason history. The Musketeers became the ninth team in Division I history to win four games in four days to capture a conference tournament title.
But beware: Of the previous eight teams, only Auburn in 1985 reached the Sweet 16.
666
The devil won't make you pick a No. 6 seed, but six seeds have a better tournament history than No. 5 seeds. Of this year's No. 6 seeds, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Boston College are good enough to make some noise.
12th (good) night
In nine out of the past 10 tournaments, at least one No. 12 has beaten a No. 5 in the first round. Of the past 40 games between No. 12 and No. 5 seeds, the 12s are 15-25. Murray State over Illinois and Manhattan over Florida are the best bets to continue the trend.
Finally, a word of caution: Office pools are a form of gambling, and according to the letter of the law, it's illegal. On the official bracket released in Indianapolis on Sunday night, the following disclaimer was made (albeit in tiny type):
"The NCAA opposes all sports wagering. This bracket should not be used for sweepstakes, contests, office pools or other gambling activities."
So let's be careful out there. And good luck.
