Monday, January 17, 2005
Super Bowl? It could happen
Analysts say lack of competition means Vikings may have shot
BY JASON WILLIAMS
Pioneer Press
The Minnesota Vikings backed into the National Football League postseason with an 8-8 record after a 5-1 start. Then, they played like — hold your breath — a Super Bowl contender in a playoff upset against the Green Bay Packers last week.
So are the enigmatic Vikings now a legitimate Super Bowl contender?
Sure, why not? Look at their competition.
"The big thing is, they are in the NFC," CBS analyst Dan Dierdorf said of the Vikings, an 8½-point underdog against the host Philadelphia Eagles at noon Sunday in a division playoff game. "And anybody has a chance in the NFC this year. If they were in the AFC, they'd have no chance."
The National Football Conference was defined by unpredictability and mediocrity this season. Until last weekend, only teams with winning records had ever won an NFL playoff game. Not only did the Vikings do it, but the 8-8 St. Louis Rams beat the Seattle Seahawks to advance to the other NFC divisional playoff game, which Atlanta won Saturday.
The 11-5 Atlanta Falcons suffered some head-scratching blowout losses to mediocre teams, and the biggest knock on the team is that they are only as good as their best player — multitalented quarterback Michael Vick. Even the top-seeded Eagles, the favorite all season to represent the NFC in Super Bowl XXXIX on Feb. 6, appear vulnerable.
Philadelphia finished the regular season with a 13-3 record and the No. 1 seed, but Terrell Owens, arguably the NFL's best receiver, will not play Sunday because of an injured ankle. And the Eagles could be rusty. They had a bye last week and lost their last two regular-season games using mainly backups. With the top seed already secured, coach Andy Reid didn't want to risk any more key injuries after Owens went down in the Dec. 19 win over Dallas.
That seems to give some hope to the Vikings. So did the most surprising aspect of their 31-17 victory over Green Bay.
"One word: defense," said Fox analyst Cris Collinsworth, part of the broadcast team that watched the Vikings intercept four Brett Favre passes. "That was a different defense than we've seen all season."
And to Collinsworth, who was a part of two Super Bowl teams with the Cincinnati Bengals in the 1980s, momentum dictates a lot of postseason success.
"One of my best friends is Mike Battaglia, the oddsmaker for the Kentucky Derby," said Collinsworth, who will be in the booth for Sunday's game. "He tells me, 'Don't pay attention to anything except (a horse's) last three races.' What the Minnesota Vikings did in the regular season is not relevant to where the Minnesota Vikings are now. The Vikings' offense is still hot, (quarterback) Daunte Culpepper is still incredible and their defense is starting to get hot. If they were a derby horse, their odds would be coming down.
"And flip that over with Philadelphia. What have they done lately? It's been a month since they've put that offense on the field. It just doesn't matter that for four months the Eagles were far and away the best team in the NFC. It was a foregone conclusion that they were going to the Super Bowl. You just don't know now."
The Vikings, who lost at Philadelphia 27-16 in September, are starting to gain favor in Las Vegas sportsbooks. Entering the Green Bay game, the Vikings were a 20-to-1 long shot to advance to the Super Bowl. This week, their odds improved to 7 to 1. To win the Super Bowl, the Vikings' odds have dropped from 50 to 1 entering the playoffs to 16 to 1.
"I don't know if 'believe' is the right word," said Robert Walker, director of the race and sportsbook for MGM Mirage casinos. "But I think people think (the Vikings) have a chance because Philadelphia has been out of the public mind for so long. They are a live (under)dog because they can score."
Common thinking is that defenses win championships. But what if you have an uncommonly good offense?
"But like (in) baseball, great hitters can hit great pitching,'' New York Giants general manager Ernie Accorsi said. "(The Vikings) have the capability of doing it. Philadelphia has a terrific defense. But I think they're good enough that that offense gives them a chance."
If that isn't enough, the onus will fall on a Vikings defense that finished next-to-last in the NFC in yards allowed per game (368.9). One game is not enough to convince CBS' Phil Simms that the Vikings will be able to combat Philadelphia's versatile star quarterback, Donovan McNabb.
"Daunte Culpepper has been great," Simms, a former Super Bowl most valuable quarterback with the Giants, said of Culpepper, the Pro Bowl quarterback who threw four touchdown passes against Green Bay. "But in the big moment, I don't know if I ever saw their defense come through all season. When your defense can't come up with some big plays when it needs to, it's tough to advance in the playoffs."
The Vikings' offense, however, is battling some health issues, not to mention the NFC's third-best defense. Receiver Randy Moss has a bum ankle but is expected to play. Veteran running back Moe Williams, who scored the opening touchdown against Green Bay, isn't expected to play much — if at all — because of an injured ankle.
But last week, the Vikings seemed to be motivated by adversity, stemming mainly from Moss walking off the field with two seconds remaining in the regular-season finale against the Washington Redskins. The controversial Moss was at it again this week, facing criticism nationally for his touchdown celebration in Green Bay. Moss pretended to pull his pants down and moon the heckling crowd.
"I love teams that play with a chip on their shoulder," Collinsworth said. "And the Vikings are playing with a boulder on their shoulder."
The winners of the Vikings-Eagles game will meet the Falcons in the NFC championship game on Jan. 23. As the lowest NFC seed, the Vikings will not play a home playoff game, although they will play indoors if they win. Atlanta plays in a domed stadium.
"So they have a shot," Walker said.
Minnesota hasn't been to the Super Bowl since 1977.
Brady, Patriots give sports books a lopsided victory
New England, Philadelphia favored in Sunday's title games
By MATT YOUMANS
REVIEW-JOURNAL
The biggest challenges bring out the best in quarterback Tom Brady and the New England Patriots' defense. Every bettor who ignored that paid for it Sunday.
Brady bumped his NFL playoff record to 7-0 and the Patriots put the brakes on the Indianapolis Colts' offense in a 20-3 victory that also turned into a lopsided win for sports books.
When the outcome was obvious in the fourth quarter, Stardust sports book director Bob Scucci posted New England as a 2 1/2-point road favorite over Pittsburgh in the AFC title game.
"Do they deserve to be a 3-point favorite? It's right on the verge," Scucci said as the game ended.
About an hour later, with bettors jumping back on the Patriots' bandwagon, Scucci moved the line to 3 and almost every Las Vegas book followed his lead.
Philadelphia opened as a 4 1/2-point home favorite over Atlanta in the NFC title game, and the line moved to 5 at several books Sunday night.
New England's performance was the most impressive of the weekend. Brady passed for 144 yards and a touchdown, Corey Dillon rushed for 144 yards and the Patriots' defense denied Indianapolis quarterback Peyton Manning once again.
Scucci said betting action was one-sided on the Colts all week. They opened as 2 1/2-point underdogs, but the line was Pick by kickoff despite the fact New England had an 18-game home winning streak and five consecutive wins over Indianapolis.
"All they keep doing is winning, especially in the playoffs," Scucci said of the Patriots, who are 6-5 favorites to win their third Super Bowl in the past four years.
"We anticipated the money coming in on the Colts, but there was no way we could make them favorites on the road at a place where they haven't won."
The Steelers struggled to beat the New York Jets 20-17 in overtime on Saturday. Rookie quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is 14-0 as a starter, but was shaky against the Jets and threw two interceptions.
Pittsburgh ambushed New England on Oct. 31, jumping to an early lead and coasting to a 34-20 victory. Brady was unusually bad and Dillon sat out with an injury as the Patriots' 21-game winning steak ended.
"The Patriots are going to be more prepared for this game," Scucci said. "It's going to be tough for a rookie QB to beat the Patriots.
"As impressive as the Steelers have been, Roethlisberger is still a rookie quarterback going up against a defense that just shut down Manning."
The Atlanta-Philadelphia game is an interesting matchup of mobile quarterbacks, the Falcons' Michael Vick and the Eagles' Donovan McNabb.
"It's a matter of whether the Eagles can shut down Vick, and that's going to be a tough task," Scucci said.
