Friday, September 10, 2004
Daily Racing Form - Horse Racing -Sports Betting NewsLosing one of the good guys
By DAVE TULEY
LAS VEGAS - This college football Saturday will seem incomplete for a lot of people in the Las Vegas sports betting community.
Handicapper Mike Lee suffered a massive stroke last Sunday and died Wednesday at Valley Hospital in Las Vegas. He was only 55.
Lee was well known in the local community, but those outside Vegas might have seen him on the "Proline" or "Sportsdesk" handicapping shows on the USA Network. His 1981 book "Betting on Bases" is considered a classic, and according to Howard Schwartz of the Gambler's Book Shop is the best-selling baseball betting book of all time and still relevant in its concepts more than two decades after its release. Lee's "Moneymaker" newsletter was also a success, and his work also appeared in more newspapers, newsletters, and web sites than can be listed here.
In an industry in which the label of "champion handicapper" is overused and often misrepresented, Lee was the real deal. Taking on the elite handicappers of the day, he won the 1985 Castaways Challenge football contest, the forerunner of the Las Vegas Hilton SuperContest. He then went on an incredible run in the SuperContest, finishing ninth in 1986, fifth in 1988, and then won it in 1989.
So what happened in 1987? The players' strike caused the contest to be canceled.
He had other achievements, most recently winning the Sunset Station All-Star Handicappers Challenge in 2000, finishing fourth in the SuperContest that same year with a record of 50-29 (63 percent) and one push, and finishing as runner-up in the 2002 Stardust Invitational, compiling an 18-10 record (64 percent) in four appearances.
While he excelled in all sports, his passion was college football, going back to his days at the University of Alabama. But that was only part of why this time of year was his favorite. He made an annual trip to Del Mar with his companion of 15 years, sports-betting writer Lynda Collins. That was a rare getaway right before the onslaught of football season.
Sports betting was his vocation, but Lee was a huge horseracing fan and was quite proficient at finding live longshots. I saw it as a very good sign when we both independently came up with Volponi before the 2002 Breeders' Cup Classic. Lee would often e-mail names of horses to me to bet, though it was usually when he came across one that included the name of my wife or kids and used it as an excuse to ask about my family.
Unlike many in his profession, Lee was modest. He certainly would have been embarrassed by me rambling on about him like this. He wasn't one to thump his chest when he was hot, and was also willing to laugh at himself when he was not. He knew that picking winners took a lot of hard work, but that even when you thought you had it figured out, you still often needed the bounces to go with you.
Lee is survived by his son, Steve, two grandchildren, and, of course, Collins and their pooch, Ms. Del Mar Dog. Lee and Collins made annual treks to Del Mar, and he loved it there so much that he is being cremated and his ashes will be spread in the nearby Pacific Ocean, where the surf meets the turf.
A memorial service was being planned for Friday. That might seem rushed to some people, but it seems appropriate to me because the last thing Lee would have wanted was to keep his friends and family from enjoying their football weekend.
College football picks:
UCLA (-2) at Illinois
This line opened at UCLA -6 1/2, and bettors have been pouring it in on Illinois as if they've seen Sunday's newspaper. It's even dropped to -1 1/2 at some Vegas sports books. The movement is obviously based on UCLA's 31-20 loss to Oklahoma St., combined with Illinois's 52-13 rout of Florida A&M. But ask yourself this: If a racehorse hangs tough and loses to stiffer stakes competition and then goes against a horse that romps in a claiming race, who would you bet on? I side with the battle-tested one, and that's why I'm on UCLA. The Bruins will be dropping in class and should have an easier time running against Illinois's defense. Illinois is also not at the level of Oklahoma St., and the UCLA defense should fare better. And, finally, I think the oddsmakers had the line right to begin with and we're getting more than 4 points' worth of value.
PLAY: UCLA for 1 unit.
Arizona St. (+2) at Northwestern
Here's another game where the point spread isn't likely to come into play. I think the oddsmakers have the wrong team favored. This should be a shootout (as reflected by the total of 59 1/2 points), and ASU quarterback Andrew Walter & Co. should just be too much for Northwestern to match score for score.
PLAY: Arizona St. for 1 unit.
Fresno St. (+13 1/2) at Kansas St.
Kansas St. is traditionally tough at home and against non-conference opponents, but Fresno St. isn't a creampuff opponent that KSU usually schedules, like Division I-AA Western Kentucky, against whom the Wildcats were less than dominating last week in a 27-13 win. Fresno St. upset Washington, 35-16, on the road last week, and coach Pat Hill has his team thinking it's a world-beater like it was a few years ago, when the team was nationally ranked. The Bulldogs are likely to fall short of the national title again because of the BCS system, but they should be competitive in a game that I projected would have a line around 8 or 9.
PLAY: Kansas St. for 1 unit.
Season record: 1-1 for net loss of 0.1 units (based on laying 1.1 units to win 1).
By DAVE TULEY
LAS VEGAS - This college football Saturday will seem incomplete for a lot of people in the Las Vegas sports betting community.
Handicapper Mike Lee suffered a massive stroke last Sunday and died Wednesday at Valley Hospital in Las Vegas. He was only 55.
Lee was well known in the local community, but those outside Vegas might have seen him on the "Proline" or "Sportsdesk" handicapping shows on the USA Network. His 1981 book "Betting on Bases" is considered a classic, and according to Howard Schwartz of the Gambler's Book Shop is the best-selling baseball betting book of all time and still relevant in its concepts more than two decades after its release. Lee's "Moneymaker" newsletter was also a success, and his work also appeared in more newspapers, newsletters, and web sites than can be listed here.
In an industry in which the label of "champion handicapper" is overused and often misrepresented, Lee was the real deal. Taking on the elite handicappers of the day, he won the 1985 Castaways Challenge football contest, the forerunner of the Las Vegas Hilton SuperContest. He then went on an incredible run in the SuperContest, finishing ninth in 1986, fifth in 1988, and then won it in 1989.
So what happened in 1987? The players' strike caused the contest to be canceled.
He had other achievements, most recently winning the Sunset Station All-Star Handicappers Challenge in 2000, finishing fourth in the SuperContest that same year with a record of 50-29 (63 percent) and one push, and finishing as runner-up in the 2002 Stardust Invitational, compiling an 18-10 record (64 percent) in four appearances.
While he excelled in all sports, his passion was college football, going back to his days at the University of Alabama. But that was only part of why this time of year was his favorite. He made an annual trip to Del Mar with his companion of 15 years, sports-betting writer Lynda Collins. That was a rare getaway right before the onslaught of football season.
Sports betting was his vocation, but Lee was a huge horseracing fan and was quite proficient at finding live longshots. I saw it as a very good sign when we both independently came up with Volponi before the 2002 Breeders' Cup Classic. Lee would often e-mail names of horses to me to bet, though it was usually when he came across one that included the name of my wife or kids and used it as an excuse to ask about my family.
Unlike many in his profession, Lee was modest. He certainly would have been embarrassed by me rambling on about him like this. He wasn't one to thump his chest when he was hot, and was also willing to laugh at himself when he was not. He knew that picking winners took a lot of hard work, but that even when you thought you had it figured out, you still often needed the bounces to go with you.
Lee is survived by his son, Steve, two grandchildren, and, of course, Collins and their pooch, Ms. Del Mar Dog. Lee and Collins made annual treks to Del Mar, and he loved it there so much that he is being cremated and his ashes will be spread in the nearby Pacific Ocean, where the surf meets the turf.
A memorial service was being planned for Friday. That might seem rushed to some people, but it seems appropriate to me because the last thing Lee would have wanted was to keep his friends and family from enjoying their football weekend.
College football picks:
UCLA (-2) at Illinois
This line opened at UCLA -6 1/2, and bettors have been pouring it in on Illinois as if they've seen Sunday's newspaper. It's even dropped to -1 1/2 at some Vegas sports books. The movement is obviously based on UCLA's 31-20 loss to Oklahoma St., combined with Illinois's 52-13 rout of Florida A&M. But ask yourself this: If a racehorse hangs tough and loses to stiffer stakes competition and then goes against a horse that romps in a claiming race, who would you bet on? I side with the battle-tested one, and that's why I'm on UCLA. The Bruins will be dropping in class and should have an easier time running against Illinois's defense. Illinois is also not at the level of Oklahoma St., and the UCLA defense should fare better. And, finally, I think the oddsmakers had the line right to begin with and we're getting more than 4 points' worth of value.
PLAY: UCLA for 1 unit.
Arizona St. (+2) at Northwestern
Here's another game where the point spread isn't likely to come into play. I think the oddsmakers have the wrong team favored. This should be a shootout (as reflected by the total of 59 1/2 points), and ASU quarterback Andrew Walter & Co. should just be too much for Northwestern to match score for score.
PLAY: Arizona St. for 1 unit.
Fresno St. (+13 1/2) at Kansas St.
Kansas St. is traditionally tough at home and against non-conference opponents, but Fresno St. isn't a creampuff opponent that KSU usually schedules, like Division I-AA Western Kentucky, against whom the Wildcats were less than dominating last week in a 27-13 win. Fresno St. upset Washington, 35-16, on the road last week, and coach Pat Hill has his team thinking it's a world-beater like it was a few years ago, when the team was nationally ranked. The Bulldogs are likely to fall short of the national title again because of the BCS system, but they should be competitive in a game that I projected would have a line around 8 or 9.
PLAY: Kansas St. for 1 unit.
Season record: 1-1 for net loss of 0.1 units (based on laying 1.1 units to win 1).
reviewjournal.com -- Sports: LVSC's reputation on the lineA few days before the football season kicks off in earnest, with a full schedule of college and NFL games, Ken White crunches numbers in his corner office at Las Vegas Sports Consultants. He will put in more than 100 hours this week.
White, 41, has spent 20 years in the business. He's been a bettor, sports book manager and oddsmaker, and admits it's a tough trade from every angle.
Last November, he went in with four partners to purchase LVSC, which supplies betting information and odds to more than 90 percent of the sports books in Nevada.
While most people work to get to the weekend, Saturday and Sunday are White's most hectic days.
"The thing about making odds is there's not a lot of time," he said.
But in the sports gaming industry, this is a crucial time. Several sports book directors are concerned about state licensing laws that they say have restricted their resources and given LVSC a near-monopoly on oddsmaking.
Nobody is under the gun more than Stardust sports book director Bob Scucci, who posts Nevada's opening football betting numbers at 7 p.m. every Sunday.
If Scucci doesn't post the best line possible, professional bettors become circling sharks ready for a feeding frenzy. Most books in the state react to how the Stardust lines move.
"The Stardust does a service to everybody. That's really the critical number," said Mirage sports book director Robert Walker, who worked at the Stardust from 1990 to 1996. "We're all concerned about the opening number. We don't want to see numbers move. Whoever puts out the opening line needs the best information."
Scucci and Walker said it's too much to ask one entity, that being LVSC, to always provide the most accurate lines.
"They give an opinion. They're not going to be right on every game and we know that. Ultimately, it's up to us to get the line right," Scucci said.
"That's the crux of the issue. We're restricted to getting our information and our odds from one source. From our perspective, the more oddsmakers we have, the better chance of getting the line right."
• • •
Only in Las Vegas could a high school baseball coach be an oddsmaker at the same time and have nobody raise an eyebrow. White coached at Bishop Gorman for nine years. He was the head coach from 2000 to 2003, his teams winning 102 games and making three state tournament appearances.
"It was never brought up one time I was there. If kids asked, it was pushed aside or ignored or never talked about," said White, a married father of four.
He was making odds for the Stardust all the while through his company, Nevada Sports Executives. He has been an odds consultant to several books for 15 years.
A former minor league baseball player, White was making NBA odds for the Santa Anita sports book on the Strip at age 21. His father, Pete, a professional bettor in Las Vegas since 1969, started teaching him how to work numbers at age 12.
He was the Fremont sports book manager in downtown Las Vegas in the late 1980s when he decided to go into business on his own.
"My first raise was going to be $1,000 after the book made $1 million, so I knew there was more money to be made outside of the book. I was putting in 60 to 80 hours a week to make that book profitable," he said.
White and Walker have known each other since that time, and Walker has employed White in the past as an outside odds consultant.
"I really do have a lot of respect for Ken," Walker said. "But I do have my reservations about the current environment. Ideally, we would have several consultants. One number cannot be all things to all people. One line cannot win."
• • •
The current environment in oddsmaking, which Walker said is "kind of a controversial issue," was implemented in 1999 when the state Legislature passed a law prohibiting sports books from paying outside oddsmakers who are not licensed.
There are currently two licensed oddsmakers in Nevada, LVSC and Eugene Bounantony, also a paid consultant to LVSC.
Keith Cofer, the Gaming Control Board's chief of enforcement, said anyone applying for a license is subject to an investigation. Beyond that, the fee to get licensed might be $100,000. It could be more or less, depending on the applicant, Cofer said.
"Where's the incentive for someone to get licensed? It's not that lucrative of a field for them becoming an oddsmaker," Scucci said. "If someone doesn't want to get licensed, they can be the best oddsmaker in the world, but we can't pay for their lines."
Scucci said he and his assistant manager, Doug Castaneda, make the majority of the Stardust's lines. They reference some Internet sites that offer free power ratings. But the only odds service they pay for is LVSC.
"We're not necessarily getting the best information. We're getting it from the only licensed place," Scucci said.
That alone makes a necessity out of LVSC, which is used by every sports book in Las Vegas with the exception of Coast Casinos.
"I do a lot of work on the Internet and do a lot of research to open up what I feel like is the best number for our properties and run with it," Gold Coast sports book director Bert Osborne said. "I would rather have control if I'm the one who has to answer for it."
White, who has a team of seven oddsmakers, said he recognizes the need for improvement in LVSC's service and is in the process of updating the technology.
White bought LVSC from CBS Sportsline, which through a deal with the NCAA agreed to cut its ties to sports gambling. In the years prior to White taking over, LVSC lost several quality oddsmakers and fell behind the technological advancements that many professional bettors use to beat the odds.
LVSC was established by respected oddsmaker Michael Roxborough, who has since left Las Vegas.
"I've been here for nine months now and I feel like I've accomplished about one-twentieth of what I want to accomplish," White said. "We've got five years to make up for."
• • •
The challenge in football oddsmaking lies mostly in the colleges, where there are more games and a wider range of opinions. That's where sports book directors feel most vulnerable, and they can't rely on offshore books to post reliable lines.
"The pros are fairly generic and very tough to beat. College is difficult to handicap and you rely more on handicappers and consultants," Walker said. "It can be problematic."
Four LVSC oddsmakers who make college lines had a disparity of 5 1/2 points when they made an opening line on Saturday's Michigan-Notre Dame game. One oddsmaker made the line 6 1/2 in favor of Michigan, and White had the highest line at 11 1/2. LVSC sent out 10, and it has been bet up to 13 1/2 points.
"I feel like we put up a good number. I feel like the public is on the wrong side of the game, and to get them on the wrong side of a college game is tough to do," White said.
"That's a game that could move around, too. The professionals see the line going up and they're thinking, I'll wait and let it go and it might get to 14. If it gets to 14, I'm hitting it. Now, all of a sudden, it's at 11. Notre Dame-Michigan should be great two-way action. My 11 1/2 is good because I think it will come back to that.
"We're the first number out and that's always going to be our goal. We're putting out a good starting point."
Walker said he thinks White will eventually turn LVSC into a more successful oddsmaking source.
"They want us to respect their line. It's going to take a long time, and we want to see what they can do and we're rooting for them," Walker said. "There is no way LVSC failing would be a good thing for this industry."
White, 41, has spent 20 years in the business. He's been a bettor, sports book manager and oddsmaker, and admits it's a tough trade from every angle.
Last November, he went in with four partners to purchase LVSC, which supplies betting information and odds to more than 90 percent of the sports books in Nevada.
While most people work to get to the weekend, Saturday and Sunday are White's most hectic days.
"The thing about making odds is there's not a lot of time," he said.
But in the sports gaming industry, this is a crucial time. Several sports book directors are concerned about state licensing laws that they say have restricted their resources and given LVSC a near-monopoly on oddsmaking.
Nobody is under the gun more than Stardust sports book director Bob Scucci, who posts Nevada's opening football betting numbers at 7 p.m. every Sunday.
If Scucci doesn't post the best line possible, professional bettors become circling sharks ready for a feeding frenzy. Most books in the state react to how the Stardust lines move.
"The Stardust does a service to everybody. That's really the critical number," said Mirage sports book director Robert Walker, who worked at the Stardust from 1990 to 1996. "We're all concerned about the opening number. We don't want to see numbers move. Whoever puts out the opening line needs the best information."
Scucci and Walker said it's too much to ask one entity, that being LVSC, to always provide the most accurate lines.
"They give an opinion. They're not going to be right on every game and we know that. Ultimately, it's up to us to get the line right," Scucci said.
"That's the crux of the issue. We're restricted to getting our information and our odds from one source. From our perspective, the more oddsmakers we have, the better chance of getting the line right."
• • •
Only in Las Vegas could a high school baseball coach be an oddsmaker at the same time and have nobody raise an eyebrow. White coached at Bishop Gorman for nine years. He was the head coach from 2000 to 2003, his teams winning 102 games and making three state tournament appearances.
"It was never brought up one time I was there. If kids asked, it was pushed aside or ignored or never talked about," said White, a married father of four.
He was making odds for the Stardust all the while through his company, Nevada Sports Executives. He has been an odds consultant to several books for 15 years.
A former minor league baseball player, White was making NBA odds for the Santa Anita sports book on the Strip at age 21. His father, Pete, a professional bettor in Las Vegas since 1969, started teaching him how to work numbers at age 12.
He was the Fremont sports book manager in downtown Las Vegas in the late 1980s when he decided to go into business on his own.
"My first raise was going to be $1,000 after the book made $1 million, so I knew there was more money to be made outside of the book. I was putting in 60 to 80 hours a week to make that book profitable," he said.
White and Walker have known each other since that time, and Walker has employed White in the past as an outside odds consultant.
"I really do have a lot of respect for Ken," Walker said. "But I do have my reservations about the current environment. Ideally, we would have several consultants. One number cannot be all things to all people. One line cannot win."
• • •
The current environment in oddsmaking, which Walker said is "kind of a controversial issue," was implemented in 1999 when the state Legislature passed a law prohibiting sports books from paying outside oddsmakers who are not licensed.
There are currently two licensed oddsmakers in Nevada, LVSC and Eugene Bounantony, also a paid consultant to LVSC.
Keith Cofer, the Gaming Control Board's chief of enforcement, said anyone applying for a license is subject to an investigation. Beyond that, the fee to get licensed might be $100,000. It could be more or less, depending on the applicant, Cofer said.
"Where's the incentive for someone to get licensed? It's not that lucrative of a field for them becoming an oddsmaker," Scucci said. "If someone doesn't want to get licensed, they can be the best oddsmaker in the world, but we can't pay for their lines."
Scucci said he and his assistant manager, Doug Castaneda, make the majority of the Stardust's lines. They reference some Internet sites that offer free power ratings. But the only odds service they pay for is LVSC.
"We're not necessarily getting the best information. We're getting it from the only licensed place," Scucci said.
That alone makes a necessity out of LVSC, which is used by every sports book in Las Vegas with the exception of Coast Casinos.
"I do a lot of work on the Internet and do a lot of research to open up what I feel like is the best number for our properties and run with it," Gold Coast sports book director Bert Osborne said. "I would rather have control if I'm the one who has to answer for it."
White, who has a team of seven oddsmakers, said he recognizes the need for improvement in LVSC's service and is in the process of updating the technology.
White bought LVSC from CBS Sportsline, which through a deal with the NCAA agreed to cut its ties to sports gambling. In the years prior to White taking over, LVSC lost several quality oddsmakers and fell behind the technological advancements that many professional bettors use to beat the odds.
LVSC was established by respected oddsmaker Michael Roxborough, who has since left Las Vegas.
"I've been here for nine months now and I feel like I've accomplished about one-twentieth of what I want to accomplish," White said. "We've got five years to make up for."
• • •
The challenge in football oddsmaking lies mostly in the colleges, where there are more games and a wider range of opinions. That's where sports book directors feel most vulnerable, and they can't rely on offshore books to post reliable lines.
"The pros are fairly generic and very tough to beat. College is difficult to handicap and you rely more on handicappers and consultants," Walker said. "It can be problematic."
Four LVSC oddsmakers who make college lines had a disparity of 5 1/2 points when they made an opening line on Saturday's Michigan-Notre Dame game. One oddsmaker made the line 6 1/2 in favor of Michigan, and White had the highest line at 11 1/2. LVSC sent out 10, and it has been bet up to 13 1/2 points.
"I feel like we put up a good number. I feel like the public is on the wrong side of the game, and to get them on the wrong side of a college game is tough to do," White said.
"That's a game that could move around, too. The professionals see the line going up and they're thinking, I'll wait and let it go and it might get to 14. If it gets to 14, I'm hitting it. Now, all of a sudden, it's at 11. Notre Dame-Michigan should be great two-way action. My 11 1/2 is good because I think it will come back to that.
"We're the first number out and that's always going to be our goal. We're putting out a good starting point."
Walker said he thinks White will eventually turn LVSC into a more successful oddsmaking source.
"They want us to respect their line. It's going to take a long time, and we want to see what they can do and we're rooting for them," Walker said. "There is no way LVSC failing would be a good thing for this industry."
